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Individual academic departments in the United States are too small to support all the areas of research that must be integrated to study volcanoes. Such preparations involve strengthening multidisciplinary research, domestic and international partnerships, and training networks ( Section 5.1). The research community needs to be prepared to monitor or respond to volcanoes globally. However, many eruptions occur at poorly monitored volcanoes in both populated and remote regions. Volcano science often advances substantially following well-studied eruptions. Develop a coordinated volcano science community to maximize scientific returns from any volcanic event. Maintaining and expanding monitoring capabilities, and supporting the infrastructure to make historical and monitoring data available ( Section 5.5), are essential for advancing understanding of volcanic processes and assessing volcanic hazards.ģ. Monitoring strategies can be informed by the emerging understanding of volcanic processes, and can be tailored to the geological setting and expected behavior. These are large-scale projects.Įmerging technologies, including inexpensive sensors and drones and new microanalytical geochemical methods, provide previously unimagined opportunities. Geologic studies, augmented by cored scientific drilling and geophysical imaging of volcanic systems, remain necessary to understand volcanism over longer periods of time. A useful goal is to have at least one seismometer per volcano, complemented by extensive ground-based monitoring at a smaller number of high-priority volcanoes, global and daily satellite imaging of deformation, and the ability to measure passive CO 2 degassing from space. Monitoring networks can overcome some of these observational biases, as can extending observations to the ocean basins. Data from satellites and expanded ground-based However, our understanding of the volcano life cycle is spatially biased by the small number of volcanoes studied in detail, and temporally biased because large eruptions are rare in the modern instrumental era. Quantify the life cycles of volcanoes globally andovercome our currentbiasedunderstanding.ĭetermining the life cycle of volcanoes is key for interpreting precursors and unrest (see Chapter 3) revealing the processes that govern the initiation, magnitude, and longevity of eruptions ( Sections 2.2 and 2.3) and understanding how magmatic systems evolve during the quiescence between eruptions ( Section 2.1). Access to and support of analytical, computational, and experimental facilities ( Section 5.2) are essential for volcano science.Ģ. Forecasting is critically dependent on the quality and accessibility of databases ( Section 5.5). Understanding of eruption processes and hazards have benefited from advances in technology and computation ( Section 5.4). National Science Foundation–supported programs that have successfully enabled cross-discipline collaboration include SEES (Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability), CMG (Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences), and CSEDI (Cooperative Studies of the Earth’s Deep Interior), but such programs have been underutilized in volcano science. Addressing this grand challenge also requires new understanding of basic processes, rates, and thresholds (see Chapter 2), which will come from using new instruments and approaches for exploring volcanic systems and from interdisciplinary research.
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These include remote sensing, geophysics, geochemistry, atmospheric science, mathematical modeling, and statistics. Forecast the onset, size, duration, and hazard of eruptions by integrating observations with quantitative models of magma dynamics.ĭeveloping conceptual models of volcanic systems as well as physics- and chemistry-based models that can inform forecasting requires the integration of data and methodologies from multiple disciplines. These challenges are grand because they are large in scope and will have important results, and they are challenges because great effort will be needed.ġ. The key questions, research priorities, and new approaches highlighted throughout this report can be summarized by three grand challenges. The field of volcano science has evolved from one dominated by a description of deposits firmly rooted in geologic traditions, to a multidisciplinary field that also exploits the latest satellite and ground-based measurements, high-performance computing, and new field and laboratory instrumentation.
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Our understanding of the life cycle of volcanoes is poised for major advances.